December 2013
What's happening to classic prices?
We're not supposed to say this for fear of starting a sugar panic or something, but a recent day out at Eric Patterson's Southern Off Road Show and Jumble (Saturday 7th December 2013) confirmed what all the other signs have been telling us for months. Which is? That the recession (or whatever the government prefers to call this perpetual black hole economy) has finally caught up with the classic bike world.
▲ The 1971 Triumph TR5T (left) is asking strong money (given the depressed economy) at £6,000. But that 1972 T150 Triumph Trident at £2,400 is way below what you'd normally consider as the entry-level price for a [mostly] complete bike. US import. No papers.
The pre-war stuff and blue chip bikes are, it seems, pretty much holding their own. But the small bikes and much of the middleweight iron is feeling the pinch. It seems that most (or at least many more) classic motorcycles are now being sold on "face value".
What the hell does that mean?
Well, it means that comments such as "it used to belong to so-and-so" or "this is the rare special edition" are having less and less impact, and buyers are looking to buy everything at the base price of a given model.
Hence Jubilee Triumph Bonnevilles struggling to sell for standard Bonneville prices. Hence competition BSA C15s being sold at run-of-the-mill C15 prices. Hence other competition or "collectors" bikes carrying no extra kudos.
We're seeing more examples of this along with the first signs that the market is starting to panic. And not just at bike jumbles such as Kempton Park, but on eBay, in the magazines, and on bike forums.
▲ 1968 Triumph Super Cub, £2,950. Lots of interest, but no one snapped it up (might have sold later). However, a year ago, we would have been looking at maybe £3,500 asking price for this bike, with an expectation to sell at £3,250.
▲ £5,000 for this rigid/tele Triumph Tiger 100. Looks like it needs work, and isn't totally original. But we think it's marked down fifteen to twenty percent on what you might have paid this time last year.
So okay, there are still strong asking prices all around. But it doesn't appear that much is changing hands at that level. Instead, we're seeing more and more discount deals and sale prices, which is something we haven't seen for a long time.
Overall, we figure that over the past year, classic bike prices have polarised a little more with a ten to fifteen percent drop at one end, and a similar rise at the top end. But yes, there are all kinds of peaks and troughs in the middle, but dealers are repeatedly telling us that prices are both up and down, and it's only the "down" that really concerns us at the moment.
To that end, we've gathered a few examples of the bikes we stumbled across at Kempton Park (and a good show it was). The prices, note, reflect the asking prices. We don't know what deals were made, but it's a fair guess than no one paid more than was asked. And we're pretty sure that a few of these bikes would have parted company with their vendors for considerably less than wished for.
So is it time to unload before the big classic bike
price crash comes?
Our advice is to stay calm and allow the market to make a few adjustments. There's not much real evidence that a crash is imminent, largely perhaps because there aren't many other places at the moment to put these "investment dollars". So classic bikes are still a fairly convenient and secure currency for anyone with a few extra quid stuffed under the mattress.
Certainly, the overall value of the classic bike market has grown/inflated considerably over the past decade—and pretty much to the point where nobody accepts any depreciation at all. However, basic economics tells you that sooner or later there's always a price adjustment, and it looks like that moment has arrived.
2013 has been a lousy year, and we've just entered a slow season (autumn/winter). If the Tories are right, the economy is on the turn and looking to grow even further from a derisory "nothing much to shout about", to "nothing much more to shout about" (although we ain't seen any sign of a bright new economic era beginning).
But if true, classic bike prices will probably begin a slow creep up again. So all you guys and girls need to do is stay on message for a while longer.
Naturally, some owners will panic. Or, at least, they'll be looking for an extra fast sale, and with all that that implies. And that means that traders and private buyers will quite probably pick up a serious bargain or two if they stay cool. And already we're seeing some evidence of that.
Here at Sump, we've got a few bikes of our own that we're looking to sell. But we're going to keep their batteries trickle-charged and try and enjoy them for a while longer and/or sit out the winter and take a fresh look at the selling position come the spring. You might try doing to same.
Meanwhile, check out the other bikes and see what you think...
▲ 1964 BSA A65 Lightning. "Restored in 2008, running order." Asking £3,250. This bike had sold at Kempton, and we don't know the sale price. But we would have expected it to do a little better than thirty-two-fifty (despite the chopped rear mudguard and non-standard taillight). So okay, not massively cheap. But it looks like a good buy.
▲ 1973 AJS Stormer, and a good runner apparently looking for £1,750. Over the past year, we've seen quite a few of these asking much stronger money (up to around £2,800), and one or two of them getting it. This example was a little rough and a ready. But not too bad, and it's a trail bike not a show bike. The asking price, therefore, looks low-ish. No idea if it found a buyer.
▲ BSA Bantam "trials project". The bike was asking £500 until someone cut a deal for the B175 engine. What remained was offered at £160. Can't get much cheaper than that? Or can you?
▲ 1960 250cc Greeves single asking £2,200. It looked to be pretty much all there and in good general condition. It was running too, or so we were advised. We figured that it would have sold for sub-£2,000, and that's a very fair money for one of the best things to ever come out of Essex.
▲ BSA DBD34 Gold Star Clubmans-spec. This bike was asking £16,500 and looking for offers. Unsurprisingly, there wasn't a long queue of customers clutching wads of cash. We think that sixteen-and-a-half-grand is top money at the moment. Bonhams, note, flogged one (albeit in touring trim) in April 2013 for £11,500. Some dealers are asking £19,500, which is very optimistic right now. But Gold Stars are pretty much always in demand and don't reflect run-of-the-mill prices.
▲ 1951/52 500cc 5T Triumph Speed Twin. £9,000. This was a very pretty looking bike even when viewed up close, and it appeared to be sorted. But a more realistic price for the current market is, we think, around £6,500 - £7,500. But good luck to him if he got nine grand.
▲ £3,350 for this 1956 AJS 500. Clean bike. Down in price very slightly over the year, and was still there when we left.
▲ This very special BSA Bantam was asking somewhere over four grand. We've forgotten exactly. But it's a tricky bike to price anyway due to the detail work (and there was an awful lot of that). All the same, it looked way too hopeful even though it drew a million eyes.
▲ This 1965 175cc D7 BSA Bantam had much lower expectations (than the one above) and was looking for just £899. We didn't see it sell.
▲ 1968 650cc T120 Bonneville. "New clutch. Good runner. Not a show bike". £7,650 was the asking price. A little high maybe, but not unrealistic.
▲ £3,500 for a T150 Trident, export specification. Like the other T150 Trident above (top), this seemed cheap. But keep in mind that Trident engines are expensive to rebuild at around £2,500. Or more. All the same, it's a fair price for a whole lotta metal.
▲£3,500 for a T150 Trident,. £1,000. Or offers. What you see is what you get. But it was a runner, and Cub spares are plentiful. Therefore, not badly priced. We reckon £800 would have snapped this up, and another careful £500 would have sorted it out comfortably for the road. Cheap.
— Del Monte
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Copyright Sump Publishing 2013